I have been paying attention to Matthew and Nicole. (Nicole may be of influence in days to come. It bears watching.) What I have read is that the winds of Matthew will be severe out to 150 -ish nm from the center. The models agree FL east coast will get slammed. Given that the distance from Miami to Naples is 83 nm (KMIA-KAPF) one may expect the width of FL to be within that wind field. I don't know if I would call that a scraping. More like a scrapping. But hey, that's significant weather for ya, it's just guessing the chances.
I think you are right on the money. That's why I made the reference to one of the guys that was driving the Titanic. Just a scrape can be like a rip saw because there's not enough land contact to slow the winds down. Overall, it can be a lot worse than a direct hit.
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